But here's what I believe this all means:
Primarily, the selection of Palin addresses the GOP's need to lure women voters. Even if the specter of Hillary Clinton weren't looming over the 2008 election, the choice of a female running mate would still be seen as pandering to the female electorate. Because of the Hillary factor, the McCain camp is again reaping the benefits of a tightly-contested Democratic primary. Lingering Obamocity ("Obama" plus "animosity," it's a portmanteau) among Hillary supporters may lead some to vote for McCain in the general election, especially if he has a woman on the ticket. With Obama choosing not to put Hillary on the ticket with him, some of these women may feel that McCain got it right and Obama got it wrong.
Of course the timing of the announcement, and the selection of a dark horse like Palin has created the media frenzy (free advertising) that the McCain campaign sorely needed on the heels of the Democratic National Convention. The consensus, even among Republicans, is that the McCain camp orchestrated the surprise selection of Palin to maximize the media hype. Evidently, presumptive front-runners Tim Pawlenty and Mitt Romney have said they felt "strung along," "manipulated" and used only as "decoys" in the selection process.
Another reason to pick Palin is her energy policy. Being a pro-drilling governor of an oil-rich state fits well with McCain's own newly adopted drilling plans. Public opinion is also on the side of McCain-Palin, although in this case, the public simply has it wrong. Not only would increasing domestic drilling take years to have an appreciable affect on gasoline prices, but it would do very little to move us towards energy independence. The U.S. Department of Energy estimates that opening up the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) to drilling, which Palin supports, would potentially lower global oil prices by $.41 per barrel. With oil currently around $115 a barrel, that means a savings of 0.3%. Not exactly a great savings. The DOE also states that "OPEC could neutralize any potential price impact of ANWR oil production by reducing its oil exports by an equal amount." Of course people want lower gas prices, but this is a case where the astute candidate will buck public opinion. The impact of increased domestic drilling would be minimal at best, and the tough reality is that high gas prices are likely essential to bringing about energy alternatives.
Of course Palin is a true Republican in almost every sense. She strongly opposes gay rights, is a member of the NRA and Feminists for Life, an anti-abortion organization. She opposed adding polar bears to the endangered species list because of the impact it would have on oil production in her state. She advocated teaching creationism in Alaska's public schools. Oh, and she's got that family values thing covered. She has done her best to add to the world's overpopulation problem by spawning five children, oddly named Track, Trig, Bristol, Willow and Piper. (suck on that, Tagg Romney!).
But in spite of her glistening Republican pedigree, I believe her selection as McCain's running mate may have had more to do with Obama's VP choice than anything. Aside from the aforementioned Hillary factor, I believe the selection of Sarah Palin was done so in large part to offset Joe Biden. The upcoming Vice Presidential Debate is scheduled for October 2, 2008 at Washington University in St. Louis. Joe Biden is capable of debating circles around anyone McCain chooses as his VP, and he won't pull any punches. Remember that Biden is the one who had one of the greater moments of the Democratic debates when he said of Republican candidate Rudy Giuliani, "There's only three things he mentions in a sentence: a noun, and a verb and 9/11."
Instead of choosing a candidate that may actually last a few rounds with Biden, he chose someone with no experience in national government and no chance in a face off with Biden. In my opinion, the McCain campaign is hoping the presence of a 44 year old mother of five across the stage from him will either make Biden "go easy" on her or be seen as a bully if he doesn't. I know that is a cynical and probably sexist assessment, but I absolutely believe Biden will now have to ratchet down the vitriol or his wit, candor and years of debating experience may backfire on him.
While the selection of Palin has it's advantages for the Republicans, the one major drawback is possibly enough to offset them all. Palin's age and inexperience essentially mean that attacking Barack Obama on the same perceived weakness is now off the table. In fact, one could easily argue that Obama's eight years in the Illinois state legislature and nearly four years as a U.S. Senator easily trump Palin's six years as a small-town mayor of Wasilla, Alaska (pop. 5,469) and two years as governor of the nation's 47th most populous state. But in choosing Palin, either McCain believes he is immortal, or he is willing to concede the argument that Obama lacks the experience necessary to be President of the United States. Clearly McCain is not immortal. If elected, he would become the oldest first-term president in U.S. history. Oh, and his recently released medical records were able to be squeezed into a mere 1,173 pages. So yes, choice of VP does matter, especially in the case of John McCain. His choice to forfeit the right to attack Obama's inexperience is, in my opinion, an egregious error.
Tina Fey look-alike notwithstanding, I think the choice of Sarah Palin as running mate will be one John McCain will ultimately regret.
