Obama and His Big Blue Paintbrush

Last night, Barack Obama won an election of tremendous historical and political significance. As an Obama supporter, I'm certainly very pleased with the victory as well as the positive reception his election has received around the world.

But my celebratory exterior belies the nerd within. I must have spent 18 out of the last 24 hours staring at that electoral map, trying to uncover the secrets behind Obama's lopsided drubbing of John McCain. Certainly, if you are one to believe the pre-election polling, this kind of performance was expected of Obama. In spite of these polling data, McCain's claims of a comeback and the so-called "Bradley Effect" left many on both sides of the aisle uncertain about what would happen on November 4th. As it turns out, the election went almost exactly according to the pre-election polling. Obama even stands to add icing to the cake if he wins either of the two remaining undecided races in Missouri and North Carolina.

So how did he do it? I'll save the hard analysis for another day, but studying the electoral map and comparing it to the 2004 election geography, some very telling facts arise that help tell the story of Obama's victory:

• If you give North Carolina to Obama and Missouri to McCain (as it appears it will go), Obama will end up winning 364 electoral votes, 94 more than is needed to win and 78 more than Bush's 286 electoral votes won in 2004. It is also 26 more than Karl Rove predicted.



• In addition to holding every blue state from 2004, Obama won nine states in 2008 that John Kerry lost: Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia.



• In addition to the newly acquired blue states, Obama pushed McCain in other traditionally red states. Obama got within ten percentage points of McCain in seven states carried by Bush in 2004: Missouri (-1 point), Montana (-3 points), Georgia (-5 points), North Dakota (-8 points), South Dakota (-8 points), Arizona (-9 points) and South Carolina (-9 points). Bush carried these states by an average of 16.3 points.



• In the 2004 "Bush States," Bush beat Kerry by an average margin of victory of 18.2 percent. In these same states in 2008, McCain beat Obama by an average of only 9.5 percent.



• Obama won his home state of Illinois by 25 points, while McCain won Arizona by only 9 points. (Obama also won his former home state of Hawaii by 45 points.)



• In 2004 Kerry won six states by 3 or fewer points: Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Obama won these same six states by an average of 12.3 points.



• Compared to Bush in 2004, McCain performed better in only two states, Louisiana and Arkansas. McCain did roughly the same in Alaska and Tennessee, and worse than Bush in the remaining 46 states.

Where are all the conservative bumper stickers???

Recently I've seen a lot of bumper stickers on cars espousing a variety of political views. Interestingly (at least where I live) these stickers almost exclusively portray "liberal" sentiments or values. From "War is not the answer" to "Impeach Bush," liberals have cornered the market on bumper self-expression.


I started to imagine examples of possible "conservative" bumper stickers, and as I did so, I started to understand why you don't see very many. Almost every conservative slogan or talking point I could conceive was either ridiculous or just downright offensive when I imagined it prominently displayed on one's vehicle. Perhaps "Pro Life" is fairly innocuous, probably only offensive to abortion doctors and victims of a rape-induced pregnancy. And conservatives don't own the American flag, so only bumper stickers that are belligerently patriotic could be considered to be "conservative."


With that in mind, I thought I would utilize some free time at work - along with the Microsoft Paint program pre-installed on my PC - to provide some examples some of the more ridiculous and inconsistent conservative values:

The Times They Are A-Changin'

This week, cable news channels severed ties with two right-wing hosts when Tucker Carlson and John Gibson were let go by MSNBC and Fox News, respectively.

Tucker Carlson is an annoying media figure for several reasons. First, he's the kind of newsperson that claims to be non-partisan, while at the same time referring to himself as "the most right-wing person I know." Secondly, that stupid bowtie. After years of being known essentially as "that douchebag with the bowtie," Carlson felt the need to announce on his show in 2006 that he was moving to the more conventional necktie. Now, his choice of neck apparel is no longer a high priority. Carlson will be replaced by David Gregory, MSNBC announced this week.




John Gibson has a long history of bigotry. Among his most notable outlandish remarks are his statement that non-Christians were "following the wrong religion," and that Hillary Clinton had made "a deal with Al Qaeda." He defended his network's incessant coverage of the Anna Nicole Smith story, accusing journalists who covered real news like the Iraq War of "news-guy snobbery." Recently, Gibson got into hot water for mocking the death of actor Heather Ledger. On March 12, 2008, Fox News Channel announced it was replacing Gibson's "The Big Story" in favor of "election-year programming." That could very well be the case, as for the first time in years, CNN's election coverage has garnered more viewers than Fox, continuing a general ratings slide indicative of Fox's alignment with the floundering Republican Party.


I found the following to be an interesting observation on how things are going in this country politically. After September 11th, Bill Maher's Politically Incorrect on ABC, and That's My Bush, a satire of formulaic sitcoms starring the current President airing on Comedy Central, were both taken off the air. While Bush got the axe due mainly to financial concerns, it would have been difficult to imagine a show lampooning the White House to be successful in late 2001. On the other hand, Maher's program was cancelled almost entirely due to comments Maher made about U.S. foreign policy in the aftermath of 9/11.

Today, roughly six years later, Bill Maher is back on the air in a similar format on HBO's Real Time with Bill Maher. The show is currently in it's sixth season and has been nominated for seven primetime Emmys.

Similarly, Comedy Central is airing a new Bush-centered comedy, Lil' Bush. The show has received mixed reviews, but is now airing it's second season of episodes. While the show is lighthearted in nature, the light in which the title character and his "pals" are painted is quite scathing.

So making fun of Bush in America has been a real roller-coaster ride:

2001 (pre-9/11): Acceptable

2001 (post-9/11): Not Acceptable

2002 through 2007: Criticism of Bush appropriate, but not exactly comical

2007 to the present: Acceptable. He's a horrible president and we've just accepted it.

Bill Clinton: More popular than ever

Approval ratings for George W. Bush and Bill Clinton

(source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll)

As time passes, the Bill Clinton presidency seems to be picking up steam. While his "bump in the polls" isn't exactly staggering, it is significant. According to the above ABC/Washington Times Poll, Clinton's post-presidential approval rating has risen 11 points, from 55% to 66% from 2003 to 2007. What might account for Clinton's increased favorability?

Keep in mind that the poll in question read:

"Thinking back to when Bill Clinton was in office, would you say you approve or disapprove of the way Clinton handled his job as president?"

So we aren't talking about anything he has done since leaving the oval office, but changes in public perception of his abilities as President of the United States while in office. The most compelling evidence for Clinton's approval ratings increase is the seemingly proportionate decrease in the approval ratings of President George W. Bush. As Bush's presidency moves closer and closer to being cemented in history as a colossal failure, it is bound to make previous presidents (especially those most recent) look better by comparison. As the above graph suggests, the approval ratings of Presidents Clinton and Bush have been near mirror images of each other since 2003.

I wonder if Bush realizes that he is making Bill Clinton more popular. Therein lies the power of the Presidency: the ability to effect public opinion of a third party based solely on the public opinion of the President.

The GOP: One Big, Horny Elephant

Politicians and civic leaders have for many years proven to be just as vulnerable to "sins of the flesh" than your average American. Certainly both Democrats and Republicans have had their fair share of scandal. Democrats, for example, can boast the infidelities of JFK, Gary Hart, Bill Clinton and Gary Condit, to name a few. While nothing can excuse the actions of these men, there is something that makes the sexual infidelities of Republicans much more insidious. Democrats do not typically campaign on the platform of moral values. If they do, they certainly do not do so by pointing out the moral flaws of their opponents. In contrast, Republicans consistently pander to the social conservatives, or Religious Right, earning votes with tough talk about morality.

All this makes it all the more amazing that the GOP almost constantly finds itself embroiled in some sexual scandal. The most recent case involving Senator Larry Craig of Idaho, seems to be more the rule than the exception. Here's a review of some of their more recent lapses in moral judgement:

Senator Larry Craig (R-ID): Craig allegedly solicited sex from an undercover police officer in a restroom at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport. Craig pleaded guilty to one count of disorderly conduct. Rather than apologize, Craig denied the allegations, regretted having plead guilty, and, most importantly, let the world know that "I am not gay. I never have been gay." Not surprisingly, Craig is a staunch supporter of the Federal Marriage Amendment, which sought to impose bans on same-sex marriage.

Glenn Murphy Jr. (former national chair of the Young Republicans): Murphy resigned his post with the Young Republicans after allegations surfaced that he performed an unwanted oral sex act on a 22-year old man while masturbating. Murphy and the victim had attended a Young Republicans function earlier that evening, and had been drinking. Murphy contended that the act was consensual, interesting because the victim claimed to have been asleep at the time. In 1998, Murphy was accused of a nearly identical sex act, but no charges were ever filed in that case due to lack of evidence.

Senator David Vitter (R-LA): Vitter's phone number appeared on a customer list supplied by the so-called "DC Madam" Deborah Jeane Palfrey. Despite the fact that the records dated back to 1999-2001, and there was widespread public knowledge of the existence of the lists since May of 2007, Vitter waited until the lists were disclosed in July 2007 to admit to using the prostitution service and issuing an apology. Vitter (who is married), also a supporter of the Federal Marriage Amendment, has in the past attacked the "Hollywood Left" and Bill Clinton for infringing on the sanctity of marriage.

Rev. Ted Haggard: The former preacher at the New Life Church in Colorado Springs, and former head of the National Association of Evangelicals admitted to "sexual immorality" after allegations surfaced that he paid a man for sex and methamphetamines. Haggard met with President George W. Bush or his advisers on a weekly basis, and it has been said that "no pastor in America holds more sway over the political direction of evangelicalism."

Rep. Mark Foley (R-FL): Foley resigned his seat in the House of Representatives in September 2006 after sexually explicit and/or inappropriate emails and instant messages sent by Foley to underage congressional pages surfaced. Foley also is reported to have had sexual liaisons with former congressional pages. At the time of his resignation, Foley was chairman of the House Caucus on Missing and Exploited Children.

Florida State Rep. Bob Allen (R): Another member of the Florida Gay Republicans Caucus, Allen was arrested in July of 2007 for allegedly offering to perform oral sex on an undercover police officer for $20. When asked about the incident, Allen claimed he made the offer out of his fear of a "pretty stocky black guy." Because we all know that when you're about to get your ass kicked, offering the other guy a BJ usually tends to smooth things over. The arresting officer's report differed from Allen's account, claiming it was Allen who approached the officer in a bathroom stall and propositioned him. Interestingly enough, Allen supports a Florida state ban on gays adopting children.

Dick Morris, political strategist and commentator: Despite having worked on President Clinton's 1996 re-election campaign, and being a self-proclaimed "bipartisan" Morris prefers to work exclusively with Republicans and is certainly ideologically conservative. Morris has since gone on the attack against the Clintons and other Democrats, is currently featured on Fox News and the ultra-conservative Newsmax.com. Morris resigned from the Clinton staff in 1996 after a lengthy and much-publicized affair he was having with a prostitute. It's unclear whether or not sucking the toes of call girls is part of Morris' "family values" agenda.

Newt Gingrich (former Speaker of the House): Ohhhh, where to begin....Newt's first wife was his former high school math teacher. While married, Newt had an affair with a campaign staffer, which ultimately led Newt to divorce his first wife while she was in the hospital suffering from cancer. Newt later remarried, until that marriage was again dissolved due to an affair he was having with another member of his staff. In fact, Gingrich, who helped spearhead the House's impeachment of Bill Clinton over the Monica Lewinsky affair, was having the affair at the same time as Clinton's impeachment.