Shocking: Unpopular Dick Cheney not a fan of polls

I may be a bit biased because I work in a public opinion environment, but I really like polls. Polls, when conducted properly, accurately portray the desires and beliefs of the American people. Not only are polls interesting, but they tell us a lot about how Americans think. Public opinion also has the power to effect public policy, at least among politicians that actually care about their constituents. If you are unaware of this site, http://www.pollingreport.com/ is a site that archives public opinion polls from most major polling organizations.

Sometimes polls are not that useful. Sometimes questions are misleading, difficult for respondents to understand, or the results simply don't tell us much. For example, polls conducted in 2006 for the 2008 Presidential Election are a bit ridiculous.

I still wouldn't go as far as Dick Cheney went with regard to the usefulness of polls. Generally, polls are a great and accurate indicator of current public opinion. When confronted by a question regarding his low approval ratings in a recent appearance on Larry King, Cheney asserted that:

"[T]he polls are notoriously unreliable, in the sense that they change all the time, they bounce around all over the place."

Actually, most polls are notoriously reliable, especially when dealing with matters of fact (for example, exit polls, Nielsen Ratings) or issues like abortion, where the core of the issue changes very little over time.

Speaking of abortion, here is a great example of a particular "unreliable" Gallop poll: In 1980, 25% of Americans thought abortions should be "always legal," compared to 26% today. 53% said "sometimes legal" in 1980, compared to 55% today, and 18% said "always illegal" in 1980 compared to -you guessed it- 18% today. Unreliable indeed.

Here's a graphic illustration of all that "bouncing around" in the abortion survey:



Moreover, when public opinion data do significantly change, it's almost always due to observable events. For example, Bush and Cheney enjoyed high approval ratings after 9/11. These were a direct result of public's belief that the White House did a good job handling the crisis coupled with widespread reluctance to criticize leaders after an attack on the homeland. Their ratings have plummeted today, not because polls "bounce all over the place," but because this administration has been an across the board disaster. Rather than bouncing, Bush and Cheney's approval ratings have resembled a very smooth ride downhill.

Of course, I don't expect Cheney to be a particular fan of polls. After all, his own approval ratings have recently been in the 28-35% range. George W. Bush, meanwhile, has recently polled as low as 26%, the lowest recorded approval rating for a president since Nixon at the height if Watergate. So what does Cheney do when confronted with the undesirable facts about his job performance? He goes on the offensive, attacking the credibility of the entire public opinion industry on Larry King. That's integrity for you.