GOP in '08: A One Trick Pony

"Terrorism...Terrorism...Terrorism...Terrorism..."

For months I have been predicting that the GOP will run a "campaign of fear" in 2008. From Rudy Giuliani's September 11 mantra, to the "Nuclear Iran debacle", the Republican candidates have made it clear that global terror will be a central issue in the the November election.

This idea was reinforced this week with the release of a new poll by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. The poll surveyed Americans on which political party, Republicans or Democrats, they believed would do a better job on a variety of issues. Of the twelve key issues, Republicans were seen as more favorable to Democrats on just one issue: Dealing with the terrorist threat at home. Despite a massive PR campaign by Republicans to paint Democrats as soft on terror, or even in bed with the terrorists, Republicans enjoyed a mere 45% to 38% advantage over Democrats on this issue. In comparison, Democrats held at least a ten percentage point lead on Republicans on nine of the twelve issues, including 25% or greater advantage on five issues.

On the environment, Americans favored Democrats to Republicans by a margin of 65 percent to 21 percent. As commanding an advantage as that appears to be, it does beg the question: Who are these 21% who think Republicans are stronger on the environment? That is the one issue in which Republicans have been proud of their failures. VP Dick Cheney has a habit of basing entire energy policy legislation on the recommendations of corporate energy lobbyists (here, here and here). But I digress...

In the Pew survey, even issues that the GOP and much of the media have touted as Republican strongholds have gone to the Dems. For example, in spite of liberals and their "War on Christmas," "Homosexual Mafia,", and "Partial-Birth Abortion" and conservatives trumpeting their "Culture of Life," and "American Values", Democrats even hold a ten point edge when it comes to "Improving morality in this country." While Conservatives like to appeal to the public with claims of lower taxes and derisive labels such as "Tax and Spend Democrats" and "Taxachusetts," Americans still view Democrats as stronger on the issue of taxes.

It appears the Republicans are beginning to understand that going to bat with one issue is going to be an uphill climb. If John McCain lives to be the Republican nominee, he will have to do three things:

1) Convince America that terrorism is the Number One issue in the 2008 election. It can't be seen as a secondary issue because Democrats win on any other issue. With the economic bubble beginning to burst, this is looking like a more and more difficult task with each passing day.

2) Overcome the public's gradual disillusionment with fear-based politics. Hillary Clinton was sharply criticized for her fear-mongering ad aimed at Barack Obama. You can bet that any fear-based pitch McCain dishes out will put the Clinton ad to shame. Personally, I think Americans are fed up with hearing about how they are going to die if they don't choose a particular candidate. And I hope they are tired of terrorism being used for political gain.

3) Distort and re-word the issues where Republicans are weakest. McCain has already started to do this. In an attempt to pull the wool over the eyes of undecided and less-informed voters, he has, on his official campaign website, disguised many key issues, hoping the public won't recognize them as strong Democratic issues. "Morals and Values" have become "Human Dignity." All immigration policy (which is an unbelievably complex issue) is lumped under the tough-guy heading "Border Security." His antiquated gun-control stance is nicely gift-wrapped in a package called "Protecting Second Amendment Rights."

I'll give it to McCain on one Issue: The Environment. Not that he's stronger on the environment than Democrats, because he's not even close. It's his attempt to make the environment a Republican issue that is, well, mildly hysterical. In his opinion, we should protect our national parks, not out of a desire to preserve nature or the future of our planet, but because it "is a patriotic responsibility." Later, he somehow manages to get "U.S. national security" into a discussion about his environmental policy, proving he will beat that drum even when it's not appropriate to beat it. And if it weren't enough to employ fear-mongering, McCain closes his statement on the environment with some good old fashioned religious pandering. Calling on Americans to be "caretakers of creation," McCain attempts to infuse just a touch of religious fundamentalism where, again, it could not be more further removed from the topic at hand.

So I have briefly outlined what the GOP's campaign strategy will be in 2008. Republicans are not stupid. They study polling data and they know which issues are winners, which are losers, and which issues just need a little change of context to be seen as favorable. Good luck with that.